When will AI surpass human intelligence in all areas?

A recent report on forecasts by Artificial Intelligence experts suggests that there is a 50% chance that AI will surpass human intelligence in all areas in about 45 years.

Artificial intelligence is changing the world and doing so at breakneck speed. The promise is that "machines" will soon be able to do every task more efficiently than humans and at a lower cost. But it raises an interesting question: when will artificial intelligence surpass human performance? Specifically, when will a machine do your job better than you? In an attempt to answer this question, Katja Grace, from the Future Institute of Humanity at the University of Oxford, interviewed 1,634 AI experts in 2015. A total of 352 of the experts responded. Katja Grace and her team then calculated their median responses and the results of that survey were presented this month.

What can we learn from it? Experts predict in this report that AI will overtake humans in the next 10 years in tasks such as language translation (by 2024), school essay writing (by 2026) and driving trucks (by 2027). But many other tasks will take much longer. According to the responses, AI won't surpass humans in retail until 2031, won't be able to write a bestseller until 2049, and will be able to master an entire surgery by 2053. But these experts are far from infallible. They had indeed predicted that the AI ​​could not beat a human at the game of Go until 2027. As a reminder, this was the case in 2015.

Still reading this report, there would be a 50% chance that AI will surpass human intelligence in all areas in about 45 years. On the other hand, Asian researchers in Asia recently reduced this ax to 30 years, while American researchers believe that this will not happen before 74 years. So these are the kinds of predictions that should be taken with a grain of salt. The experts will always be able to tease the figures, it will however be necessary to do with this AI whether we like it or not. The way seems to be in fact all mapped out in our evolution. The question will be whether or not we will be able to do with this Artificial Intelligence.

Source