By akademiotoelektronik, 25/03/2023

Submarine crisis: why is New Caledonia in the news?

PACIFIC - “It would be good for France to reaffirm its attachment to New Caledonia”, launched this Tuesday, September 21 Michel Barnier, presidential candidate, questioned on the submarine crisis between France, the States United States, the United Kingdom and Australia. In the tense context since the rupture of the “contract of the century”, the overseas territory is indeed attracting attention.

After the “diplomatic and industrial disaster” of the breach of the giant contract to supply Australia with submarines, “we must reflect on our own mistakes in this great Indo-Pacific region” of which “the Americans and the Chinese (…) want to eliminate us”, hammered Michel Barnier this Tuesday, September 21 on France 2.

And the former Mr. Brexit of the European Commission to argue that France has "reasons to have a French ambition in this" Indo-Pacific region. Before him, Xavier Bertrand, another right-wing presidential candidate (without going through the primary box) had expressed a similar opinion and called on Emmanuel Macron to defend French “influence” in the region. By what means? By betting on the overseas territories and more precisely the community of New Caledonia, 3000 km from the Australian coast.

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France's “anchoring” in the Indo-Pacific region

New Caledonia, French Polynesia, Wallis and Futuna, Mayotte and Reunion are “anchoring ( of France, Editor's note) in this Indo-Pacific zone", declared Emmanuel Macron during a trip to Australia in 2018. With "just over a million and a half citizens" and "a long-standing military presence", the France owes part of its place as the world's second largest maritime power to its islands in the region. In 2018, the President of the Republic even thanked them for having “prefigured in a way” the vaunted “Indo-Pacific strategy” alongside Australia.

A little more than three years later, the strategy in question has been shattered since the birth of “AUKUS” (Australia-Britain-United States alliance) on September 15. But the overseas territories are still there. And their importance is increased tenfold. "I think that France should reaffirm its presence more in New Caledonia or in Tahiti (in French Polynesia, editor's note)", estimated on Europe1 General Christophe Gomart, former commander of the special forces. Before confiding that this opinion was shared by “his Australian and New Zealand counterparts” when he was in office.

Mikaa Mered, teacher and secretary general of the overseas chair at Sciences Po, believes that France is currently a “junior partner” in the area, particularly compared to the British. The latter have only one island - Diego Garcia - in the Indian Ocean. But “it is a base which allows the United States and then, suddenly, their English ally to be able to radiate over the whole of the Indian Ocean and to better control it”, estimates the teacher, questioned by New -Caledonia 1st.

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The Caledonian referendum on the horizon

“It is up to France today to reinvest in its overseas territories, to give them greater added value from a geostrategic point,” says Mikaa Mered. “It goes through the deployment of resources, the deployment of men. And then obviously, the capacity to be able to use the overseas spaces, on which there are military bases for the American allies in a much more thorough way”.

With one detail. By the end of 2021, France could be forced to do without New Caledonia, which must decide whether or not to maintain it as a territory of the French Republic. The first two referendums saw the victory of the “no” to independence: first comfortably with 56.7% of the votes in the first ballot, then less widely, with 53.3% of the ballots in the second. The third referendum provided for by the Nouméa Accords is due to take place on 12th December next. And if the current crisis in no way calls into question its behavior or its content, it gives its result an even greater importance from a geostrategic point of view.

“I say this very clearly: I want New Caledonia to remain in the national community, and it is essential to hear the government and the Head of State say exactly the same thing”, insisted Xavier Bertrand guest of the RTL-LCI-Le Figaro Grand Jury.

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So far, Emmanuel Macron has played it safe on the referendum. He welcomed the results of the second ballot with "gratefulness", while claiming to "hear the voice of those who are driven by the desire for independence". His overseas minister Sébastien Lecornu is due to go to the archipelago in early October not to “campaign”, he underlines, but to “pursue the political dialogue” and “help build the next steps”. The interest of this mission today is as much national as international.

See also on The HuffPost: Submarine crisis: diplomatic tension between France, the United States and Australia