By akademiotoelektronik, 25/06/2022

China -United States: "Go game around Taiwan" Close the panel Open the feather panel Le Figaro App -icon -512px V1 1 -Style/Logotypes/Le Figaro/Apps/Games

Hugues EUDELINE is a associate researcher at the Thomas More Institute, former naval officer, engineer, doctor in history of the Practical School of High Studies, Vice-President of the Jacques Cartier Institute and corresponding member of the Royal Marine AcademySwedish.

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Pékin a envoyé 38 avions de combat dans la zone d'identification de défense aérienne de Taïwan vendredi 1^er octobre, 39 samedi, 16 dimanche et 52 lundi, soit un total de 145 avions en quatre jours. Le nombre d'incursions dans l'espace aérien contrôlé par la République de Chine (Taïwan) ne cesse de croître alors que les menaces proférées à son encontre par la porte-parole du ministère des Affaires étrangères de la République populaire de Chine sont de plus en plus acerbes : «Le principe d'une seule Chine est le fondement politique des relations sino-américaines. La Chine prendra toutes les mesures nécessaires pour écraser résolument toute tentative d'indépendance de Taïwan. La Chine a la ferme résolution et la volonté de sauvegarder la souveraineté nationale et l'intégrité territoriale».

This frantic military activity responds to American geostrategy which unfolds inexorably in Indo-Pacific with a necessarily slower tempo, but by establishing solid links with safe allies, sometimes to the detriment of more independent partners such as France.

Time is counted for China who knows how to be able to face the American giant when he has deployed his forces, despite the fantastic war of war which she has accelerated.If the industry can provide combat means in large numbers, it is not the same for staff whose training is necessarily long and difficult.Furthermore, create an ex abrupto navy as she does, without traditions or a true ally to quench in the various fields of struggle, forces her to discover everything.

Russia with which it maintains relationships of circumstances remains the eternal adversary, however, which it has always fought and which will never share its know-how in the naval field.Too much litigation to come and will prevent, in particular opposite interests with regard to the exploitation of the maritime roads of the Arctic Ocean when they open under the effect of global warming.Russia, then unclogged, will realize the dream of all its leaders from Pierre Le Grand: permanent access to maritime communication routes essential for its economic development.Failing to have been able to access it by the force of its weapons, it is thanks to a climate phenomenon that it will have a huge coastline bathed by an arctic navigable ocean.China, on the other hand, will have a vital need for this shortcut to the Atlantic to sell its trade.

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If China is not yet ready for a confrontation with the United States, these are not either.Placing himself as a defender of freedom of navigation in accordance with international maritime law, President BIDE pursues the policy that President Obama had initiated with the Asian pivot.To contain the Chinese colossus, it develops a network of local partners and allies.The latter are those who share democratic principles, but above all that implement interoperable weapons with those of the United States allowing them to share an optimized combat logistics.American weapons therefore, the only ones who can be produced in large numbers.

Japan, South Korea, Great Britain, Australia have or will soon receive the same technologically advanced weapons systems that are the AEGIS, the maritime patrol plane Poseidon and the fifth generation hunter F-35.The latter can embark on their aircraft carriers, all of national design, but designed and built for this intention.The creation of the Aukus makes it possible to define a central nucleus made up of the Anglosphere countries around which others will be able to increase, such as India, Japan and possibly South Korea.This methodical construction of a solid alliance, however, requires time and the forces present in the theater are far from being adorned.

Neither China nor the United States and their allies and partners are ready to enter a major conflict.It is this observation that makes the situation of Taiwan very precarious.For reasons of domestic policy, President Xi Jinping may be tempted to play on the nationalist fiber of its population so as to make forget the economic and health setbacks.It could be tempted to make a massive attack on the island to gain speed too low opposition to be able to oppose it effectively, and this before the important armaments orders made in the United States allowedto strengthen the defense of the island.

The air operations carried out by Chinese, naval and air forces are precursor events that make it possible to assess Taiwan's defense means.By simultaneously involving a large number of devices of all types, the Chinese test the reaction times of the defenses, spot the locations of the shooting radars and the emission modes they use.These supported operations exhaust the air forces of Taïpei and use their technical potential by forcing them to take off many interceptors.

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The analysis of Chinese modes of action since the start of its boom in 1978 shows that it systematically practiced a policy of small steps which, individually considered are small, carried, but whose cumulative effect leads to major strategic advances.With this in mind, should we see in these increasing intensity operations the announcement of an imminent Taiwan attack?

The risk of an accident becomes more and more likely with the increase in the number of interceptions.An error in evaluating the threat by a pilot or by servants of a Taiwanese defense weapons system could lead to the loss of a Chinese plane.An incident of this type would provide President Xi Jinping with the pretext for an intervention.Could it be too much Machiavellian to think that it is what he is looking for to justify a large-scale surprise military action so that it is fast and to be able to argue in a situation of the fait accompli?

However, it would not be without risk for China although the treaties that govern relations between Washington and Taïpei do not include an automatic intervention clause in the event of aggression since the United States recognized the People's Republic of China.The Taiwan Relations Act entered into force on April 10, 1979 replaces the Mutual Defense Treaty Between the United States and the Republic of China of March 3, 1955. It defines the relations that the United States and Taiwan maintains, and limits military assistanceAmerican with defensive weapons alone.Geographically, in the two treaties, the term "Taiwan" includes the island of Taiwan (the main island) and the Pescadore islands.The other islands or archipelagos are excluded under the control of the Republic of China, Jinmen, the Matsus, the Wuqiu Islands, the Pratas and Taiping.

On March 27, 2020, President Trump initialed the Taïpei Act, a law on international protection initiative and strengthening of Taiwan allies which authorized the United States to increase economic, diplomatic and military aid to countries that revalued theirRelations with Taiwan and to decrease it in the opposite case.On October 28, 2020, the American administration authorized the sale of numerous weapons, including 400 Harpoon antinavire missiles.

The fact that no American force is officially prepositioned on Taiwan Island is rather a favorable element for the United States in the event of Chinese Taiwan attack.No American soldier, sailor or aviator would be involved directly in the fighting, which leaves the American command capable of choosing when and where to intervene.

A possible scenario would consist in knocking from the Chinese military locations located outside its national territory as it is recognized by the United Nations, but whose loss would have catastrophic consequences on the Chinese economy.The outlet by fighting on surgical strikes from the seven backfilled Highfonds of the Spratly Islands (in particular mischief shoal, Fiery Cross Reef and Subuf).Hu Jinta called a "dilemma of Malacca", that is to say the blockade by the closure of the Malacca Strait of vital trade flows for the Chinese economy.Drive of bases and therefore logistics, his maritime forces (militia, coast guard and war) would have great difficulty in opposing them.

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