By akademiotoelektronik, 26/09/2022

Evolution of the balance of power between Algeria and Morocco

In the Maghreb, yet another twist is taking place between Morocco and Algeria.Algeria announces to end diplomatic relations between the two countries.In question, "hostile acts" perpetrated by Morocco according to Ramtane Lamamra, the Algerian Minister of Foreign Affairs.To understand the events that take place at the moment between Algiers and Rabat, a historic reading grid is necessary;These two nations already having a conflictual relationship for decades.

A hostile bilateral relationship from the independence of Algeria.Unlike Algeria which underwent an independence war from November 1, 1954 to March 19, 1962 on its territory, Morocco negotiated and obtained independence peacefully from April 7, 1956.This nuance potentially represents the first rivalry between Morocco and Algeria, although it was internalized.Despite a mobilization and active support from Morocco so that its Algerian neighbor obtained independence on July 5, 1962, clashes took place on October 8, 1963 between the Moroccan Royal Armed Forces (FAR)) and the National People's ArmyAlgerian (ANP)).

These clashes are the consequence of Moroccan territorial claims on a part of Algerian territory and have given rise to a military confrontation nicknamed the "sand war".Hostilities ceased on November 5, 1963 leaving the borders unchanged, and a cease-fire entered into force on February 20, 1964, in particular thanks to the organization of African unity (OUA)).This confrontation resulted in an alignment of Algeria in the Eastern Communist block, with the USSR as the main military armament supplier;and Morocco in theCapitalist Western Bloc, turned to the American and European West.This ideological divergence is important to understand the balance of power between the two countries.

The continuation of Moroccan territorial demands on WesternSahara.After almost a century ofSpanish occupation, Francisco Franco, head of state ofSpain, decides to end the colonization of WesternSahara, which took effect on November 14, 1975.Hassan II, the Moroccan sovereign, covets this territory with Mauritania which is refused to him by the International Court of The Hague.The Moroccan king then began, on November 6, 1975, a peaceful "green march" with 350,000 voluntary walkers to take control of the ambitioned region, causing the first diplomatic break between Algeria and Morocco from 1976 to 1988.Indeed, Algeria does not wish to see its Moroccan neighbor taking hold of this territory, in particular because of its strong economic potential.

In parallel, the Polisario Front, political and armed movement of WesternSahara created on May 10, 1973, opposed Moroccan claims and goes so far as to proclaim a Democratic Arab Republic (RASD)) on February 27, 1976 in Bir Lahlou.The Polisario Front, supported by Libya and Algeria then starts a guerrillas against Morocco and Mauritania.Mauritanian troops were retreated in 1979, and Rabat took the opportunity to consolidate its position by building a 2,500 km wall between 1980 and 1987.The latter will be named "Wall of LesSables" in Morocco, and on a contrario, "wall of shame" in Algeria.The confrontation of the two antagonists gets dressed, the mediations fail until the signing of an ceasefire under the aegis of the United Nations mission for the organization of a referendum in WesternSahara (Minurso)) on 6September 1991.This entity's mission is to maintain peace on the region and organize a self -determination referendum for theSahrawis, strongly disputed by Morocco, which prefers to speak of an autonomy under its sovereignty.

Terrorism, a new source of conflict.On August 24, 1994, an attack at the Atlas-Asni hotel took place in the city of Marrakech.Rabat accuses his enemy brother Algiers of having involved his secret services in this attack on the territory.The Moroccan response is immediate with the expulsion of Algerians who do not have a residence permit, and the establishment of visas to enter the territory.Algeria responds quickly by closing its border with Morocco.

A hope of Algerian-Moroccan reconciliation quickly aborted.February 17, 1989 was initiated the creation of the Arab Maghreb Union (UMA)), a political-economic organization composed by Algeria, Morocco, Libya, Tunisia and Mauritania.However, this structure will prove to be in a situation of immobility.In addition, from 1993 to 1996, an ambitious gas pipeline project in whichSpain, Morocco, Algeria and Portugal participated, is committed.The Maghreb-Europe (GME)) gas pipeline aims to supply the Iberian Peninsula with natural gas, and therefore Europe.This will also be the first major economic and structural partnership between the two hereditary enemies of the Maghreb.

Finally, on April 27, 1999, Abdelaziz Bouteflika was elected President of the Democratic and Popular Algerian Republic.Wanting to make a clean sweep of historical confrontations, the latter attempts a rapprochement between the two countries, on the one hand by going to the funeral of his counterpart Hassan II, and on the other hand by advocating the positive benefits of a synergy between Moroccoand Algeria, especially at the economic level.Nevertheless, Bouteflika reaffirms his support for the cause of the Polisario front for a WesternSahara freed from any Moroccan predation, which causes the indignation of the ruling class in Morocco.In 2005 and following public statements by Algerian Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia on the conflict in WesternSahara, the Moroccan Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mohamed Benaissa refused his arrival in Morocco.

Standardization of diplomatic relations between Rabat and Tel Aviv.Benyamin Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister until June 2021, seeks to set foot in Africa, especially in the Maghreb and thus develop his circle of influence.To achieve this, he wishes to obtain observer status within the African Union.Mohammed VI Morocco provides him with significant aid in favor of its integration into this intergovernmental organization.

In return, Morocco hopes to intensify Israeli investments but also strengthen military cooperation between the two countries.On December 10, 2020 marked a diplomatic and geopolitical victory for Rabat since the UnitedStates recognized Morocco's sovereignty over WesternSahara, on the sole condition of normalization of relations between Morocco and Israel entitled "The Abraham agreements"and signed on December 22, 2020.Algeria perceives this declaration as a strategy of destabilization against it with an alliance such as Aviv-Washington-Rabat at its doors, especially since it maintains privileged relationships with the Palestinian movement.

From degradation to the rupture of relationships between Algiers and Rabat in 2021.In March 2021, Algeria began its informational confrontation against Morocco, via the media, accusing it of using drug trafficking as a means of destabilization.The same month, Algeria prohibits Moroccan farmers from Figuig to cross the border, and therefore, to take advantage of the exploitation of Algerian palm groves.On July 14, 2021, the representative of the Kingdom of Morocco to the United Nations would have affirmed his support for the movement for the self -determination of Kabylia (MAK)).Algeria retaliated by recalling its Rabat ambassador.On July 18, 2021, the scandal linked to "Pegasus", Israeli spy software having the functionality of attacking smartphones under iOS and Android broke out.The kingdom would have used the software to carry out spying actions on journalists as well as on Algerian political and military figures, once again complicating the links between the two protagonists.

On the occasion of the "Throne Day" on July 30, 2021, Mohammed VI tries in vain to appease the crisis with Algiers, renting an opportunity to improve bilateral relations as well as the possibility of reopening borders, closed since theMarrakech attacks in 1994.The arrival in Morocco of Yaïr Lapid, Minister of Israeli Foreign Affairs on August 12, 2021 exacerbates tensions since he openly accuses Algiers of facilitating the actions of Iran in the region.In this context of tensions, Algeria incriminates Morocco on August 18, 2021 as a stakeholder in the fires which ravage Kabylia, because of its potential support for MAK.Indeed, the Algerian Minister of the Interior, Kamel Beldjoud, on the move in the disaster areas declared that these fires had a human and criminal origin.On August 24, 2021, Algeria of Abdelmadjid Tebboune, President of the Algerian Democratic and Popular Republic, unilaterally decided to stop diplomatic relations with Morocco, to close its air space and threaten to stop the supply of the Maghreb gas pipeline-Eeurope at the end of the contract on October 31, 2021.

Continual economic exchanges decline.Since the 1994 attacks which have shaken Marrakech and caused the closure of land and sea borders between Morocco and Algeria, the commercial transactions between the two belligerents have been considerably reduced.However, until 2016, Algiers is the first trading partner in Rabat, a position taken up today by Egypt and Côte d'Ivoire, and enjoys a favorable commercial balance up to $ 350 million.However, this balance remains minimal compared to economic transactions worldwide.About 80% of these exchanges are linked to gas exports from Algeria.

This data will be led to drastically decrease, if relations between Algeria and Morocco continue their deterioration leading to non-application of the Maghreb-Europe pipeline.According to the Moroccan Exchange Office, the amount of transactions caps at 500 million euros in 2020, or 1% of imports and exports in Morocco.A volume that seems derisory compared to the exchanges between the Moroccan kingdom and theSpanish monarchy which reach 13.5 billion euros the same year.This problem of fluidity of transactions due to the closure of borders has caused a perverse effect which is the development of smuggling.This informal border trade is fueled by drug, fuels, drugs and food trafficking.

Information strategic objectives and force reports against the backdrop of historical resentments and regional rivalries.The West Maghreb is in a highly complex situation which requires different reading grids, in particular historical, political, economic, and geopolitics.Morocco and Algeria are carrying out an economic war and using informational destabilization strategies.Algiers evolves in a difficult internal context since it undergoes the full force of sporadic demonstrations with the "Hirak" since 2019 against the power in place, endemic unemployment of graduates and young Algerians, the water crisis, as well as theconsequences of the COVVI-19 epidemic on investments and tourism.However, it aims to be regional power, which puts it in direct competition with Morocco.In order to implement its ambition, Algeria uses a strategy for the diversion of the attention of Algerian citizens on the various crises that the country crosses, by subjecting it an external enemy.For this, the young semi-presidential republic will regularly point the finger at its Moroccan neighbor via important media attacks or official government announcements on discordance subjects, sometimes without proof, in order to destabilize the Moroccan Constitutional Monarchy.

In addition, at the ideological level, Algiers supports the approach of the rights of peoples to have themselves, in particular concerning the WesternSahara file.However, an underlying reason could be that Algeria supports the Polisario Front in order to prevent a reinforcement of Rabat by the acquisition of a new territory which is also rich in iron, manganese, uranium, gold and phosphate, with a large coastal surface on the Atlantic Ocean (Fisual Resources)) and a substantial tourist potential.For its part, Morocco undergoes repeated Algerian attacks, which still continue in 2021.Despite Mohammed VI attempts, the conflict between the two enemy brothers of the Maghreb remains highly active.Furthermore, if Morocco's involvement in the "Pegasus project" and support for MAK is confirmed, this would demonstrate a strong contradiction between the declarations of the Moroccan government and its offensive actions in the shadows, which notably target the integrity ofAlgerian territory in the Kabyle region.In general, Morocco seems to come out victorious from this confrontation with new alliances and new partnerships to its credit, as well as a strategy which does not follow a logic of climbing the conflict against Algeria.

Ultimately, Morocco and Algeria are in a geopolitical and diplomatic dead end which has harmful consequences on the respective economies and the stability of the Maghreb region.This historic showdown must be overcome by the Algerian-Moroccan authorities in order to create cooperation, both security and economic, and to energize regional development which has great potential, without falling into the thucydide trap.This dynamic could have increased GDP per capita between 2005 and 2015 by 34% on the Algerian side, and 27% on the Moroccan side according to a prospective report from the World Bank published in 2010.In addition, the risk of axis such as Aviv-Washington-Rabat is to be perceived as a real threat to Algerian policies and for the integrity of the territory.This risk would push Algeria to consider new alliances in order to counter its neighbor, such as a new Algiers-Téhéran-Moscow-Ankara axis, since the latter seek to be present in the western western Mediterranean.

Edouard yziquétudiant of the initial trainingSIE25

Sources

28 minutes - Arte.(2021, August 26)).Algeria breaks its diplomatic relations with Morocco.

6medias.(2021,September 30)).Cold with Morocco, Algeria is likely to close the gas tap inSpain.Capital.

Algeria PressService.(2021, July 17)).Nation council: the declaration of the representative of Morocco to the UN "devoid of any diplomatic or moral sense".

AMSILI,S.(2021, August 24)).Maximum tensions between Algeria and Morocco.The echoes.

Boniface, p.(2021, February 11)).Explain me...WesternSahara.

Under the cards - Arte.(2021, April 3)).The Morocco of Kings: What future?

Under the cards - Arte.(2021,September 15)).Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria: new deal in the Maghreb.

Deveaux, j.(2021,September 9)).Algiers cut the gas in flap.France Info Africa;

Ellyas, B.S.(2018, July 20)).Sand war.Accessed October 18, 2021.

Europe Maghreb Pipeline Limited.(s.d.)).Story.Emplut.

France 24.(2021, August 24)).Tensions in the Maghreb: Algeria breaks its diplomatic relations with Morocco.

France Info with AFP.(2021, August 11)).Algeria: What we know of fires in the north of the country, especially in Kabylia, which left at least 69 dead.Accessed October 19, 2021, on France Info Africa.

Haddouche, h.(2021, August 31)).The Maghreb-Europe pipeline, the first victim of the rupture between Algiers and Rabat.Middle East Eye.

Kadiri, G.(2021, October 7)).The world Africa.

The Parisian.(2021, August 18)).Maghreb: Algeria is blurring with Morocco, accused of "hostile acts".Accessed October 18, 2021, The Parisian.

The Economist.(2021, August 5)). Affaire Pegasus : ForbiddenStories et Amnesty International n'ont pu fournir aucune preuve contre le Maroc. The Economist.

LUGAN, B.(2021, October 4)).Diplomatic relations: Algerian-Moroccan litigation.French Army Support Association (ASAF)).

Méric, é.(1965)).The Algerian-Moroccan conflict.Accessed October 18, 2021, Persée;

Mohsen-Finan, K.(2021, August 31)).Algeria-Morocco, the challenges of the rupture.Orient XXI;

Forty, o.(2014, March)).Si richeSahara occidental.The diplomatic world.

International writing.(2020, November 21)). AuSahara occidental, la perspective d'une guerre sans fin.France Culture;

Vidalie, a.(2017, August 11)). La "Grande Muraille" duSahara, "mur de défense" ou "mur de la honte"? L'Express;